How Mineral Supply Will Change EV Forecasts

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Cobalt is considered the highest material supply chain risk for electric vehicles (EVs) in the short and medium term. EV batteries can have up to 20 kg of Co in each 100 kilowatt-hour (kWh) pack.

I would argue that it is physically impossible to replace all cars with electric ones because:

Nissan Leafs, which have under 200 miles of range, come in 40 kWh and 60 kWh variants. The Long Range Tesla Model 3, capable of over 300 miles of range, comes with a 75 kWh battery pack.

So if we take it that each car requires 10kg of Cobalt to make its battery.

Total world reserves of Cobalt are estimated by the United States Geological Survey at around 7.6 million tons of contained cobalt. There are 1.446 billion cars in the World in 2023, my basic grasp of arithmetic dictates that to replace the cars would require 1 trillion four hundred and forty six million kgs of cobalt. There are 907.185kgs in a metric ton so the required amount in tons is 1,609,374,052

The Congo is the Worlds largest producer of cobalt, accounting for roughly 70 percent of global production, 130,000 MT in 2022. Production would have to be ramped up 12.5 times.

Maybe battery recycling can reduce the amount of raw material that needs to be dug up but it doesn't exist in any capacity yet.

So who gets a car? well that's obvious. Klaus will have one and Bill and Al and everyone else can walk.

It will be great, our health will improve and we will be happy, and sarcasm will be outlawed.

 

I just focused on Cobalt, and didn't even mention Lithium,manganese, graphite, steel, and nickel.